Here Comes Jimmie - The 48 Ain’t Done Yet

Only one driver has won three consecutive championships at NASCAR’s highest level, Cale Yarborough from 1976 - ‘78. Despite his worst start since entering the series full time in 2002, a three-peat is still possible for the 21st century’s top driver entering 2008.

With only one win and four top-five finishes through four months of racing, Jimmie Johnson’s two-year reign as king of NASCAR could be coming to a close were it not for the controversial Chase format. Johnson was a firm ninth in the standings prior to Dover and trailed leader Kyle Busch by 367 points.

Lofty expectations bring a series of disappointments if the rate of success dips, and Johnson’s grip is getting slippery. After a series leading 10 wins in ‘07, including four of the last five Nextel Cup events, the 48 Chevrolet was the logical choice to win again in ‘08. That dominance is no longer there and teammates Jeff Gordon, Casey Mears, and newcomer Dale Earnhardt Jr. are winless as well in ‘08.

JJ doesn’t seem worried.

The El Cajon, Californian also has two career series runner-ups and 34 wins to his credit, and a long history of rising to the top. Considering the incredible run he had in last year’s Chase, as long as he’s in the field he remains a solid contender.

His atypical troubles continued recently at Lowe’s Motor Speedway, a track he has mastered in previous years. Career-wise, Johnson is peerless at LMS, statistically speaking. He ranks first in every major category at the Concord venue, besting rivals so convincingly that claims of a conspiracy-i.e., a Lowe’s car crushing the competition at a Lowe’s facility-routinely emerged. On May 25, the 48 car finished 39th in a field of 43 after engine trouble knocked JJ out of a race for the first time this season. Previously he had won seven times at the SMI-owned track and took three straight Coca-Cola 600s in 2003 - ‘05.

After rebounding in late March from a slow start, he came in fourth at Martinsville, followed by a runner-up spot at Texas and a win at Phoenix. He has slid again since then, and a general consensus is building that he’s mired in a season-long slump, much like his majority car owner (Gordon). Johnson says the reason for his drop is the Car of Tomorrow, now run at every series event. Gordon has also struggled in the wider car after Hendrick drivers won the first five COT races in ‘07. Johnson points out that his early wins from a year ago were in the old car and on shorter tracks. His five COT victories last season came at Richmond (.75-mile) and Martinsville (.526-mile)-two wins each-and at Phoenix (1-mile). He and the 48 crew are still figuring out how the heavier car handles on the bigger tracks in ‘08.

The edge Hendrick Motorsports had last season seems to be gone, through Johnson points out that other teams have simply caught up. If he can’t fare better at LMS of all places, where he has frequently excelled (he finished fourth in the May 17 All-Star race), he may be content to complete each race the rest of the way, win if he can, and qualify for NASCAR’s version of the postseason before making a strong move to the front.

Johnson has started well in previous years before going through a similar slide during the summer. He went 11 consecutive events without a win when the temperature rose in ‘06, and 14 straight weeks without a checkered flag in ‘07 before a late August win at California. This isn’t his first drought, but he has never struggled like this so soon. Still, he’s the only HMS driver with a win thus far.

Keep watch. The Hendrick team has never been down for too long.

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